Wilfred Vos’ Blog

October - Almost Over!

October 31st, 2008

I am glad that today is October 31st – not because it is Halloween but because today we conclude the worst monthly return for stocks since the Great Depression (subject to today’s stock market performance). I’m very ready to move on and close this chapter in the history books.

Historically, November has been a [...]

Oil Bounces Back

October 30th, 2008

The Halloween season always makes me nervous.  I have never been a fan of horror movies and about 10 years ago I made the mistake of watching the Blair Witch Project with some friends (zero budget cult film that grossed $100 million to everyone’s shock) and I was on the ceiling.  Two years ago the [...]

FOMC cuts rates

October 29th, 2008

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 0.50% to 1%.
They stated that “the pace of economic activity appears to have slowed markedly, owing importantly to a decline in consumer expenditures. Business equipment spending and industrial production have weakened in recent months, and slowing economic [...]

Yo-Yo and a little celebration

October 29th, 2008

Markets are very jittery and like a “yo-yo” they can snap down, up, down and up at a moments notice and lately, without justification, simply on investor sentiment.  These are interesting and unprecedented times and we are making history.

Yesterday, in the United States, it was the second-biggest point gain ever for the Dow [...]

More than $12 trillion was erased from the market value of equities this month, accounting for about one-third of the total value wiped off stocks this year, as almost $680 billion of write downs and losses by banks triggered a freeze in credit markets.

Stocks in Canada and around the world dropped sharply with [...]

Sky is Not Falling

October 24th, 2008

The Bank of Canada (BoC) offered a “bleak” outlook for the Canadian economy yesterday, placing our economy on the cusp of technical recession with 0.4% growth in the next two quarters.  Slower growth will result in job losses, a reduction in household wealth and falling house prices.

Although, after today I wonder if Mr. [...]

Ground Hog Day

October 23rd, 2008

Stocks tumbled to 5 year low yesterday with North American markets declining between 6% and 7.5% and global markets were not that far behind.

There is a lot of stuff going on but investors are digesting an increasingly “bleak” outlook for the global economy following disappointing earnings results and future outlooks from companies around [...]

Dollar and Earnings Volatility

October 22nd, 2008

Stock markets around the world fell sharply again yesterday and they continue to fall this morning (the MSCI World Index is down 2.5% in local currency). After concerns about an economic recession, falling commodity prices and gloomy corporate earnings pushed buyers onto the sidelines.
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced their latest tactic to end [...]

There is room for optimism

October 21st, 2008

I could write a very, very long list of pessimistic facts that will act as ‘headwinds’ to positive stock market performance. However, this long list (especially as it relates to the economy) will be triumphed with time by two large positive factors:

Stocks have dropped significantly from their respective highs and they are frequently trading at [...]

The economy is looking pretty weak but stocks did have their biggest weekly advance since 2003 last week.

Things are bleak in the economy:

The world’s developed economies will expand next year at the slowest pace since 1982, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said earlier this month. Global growth will weaken to 0.5% in 2009, [...]

Copyright © Wilfred Vos’ Blog. All rights reserved.